The short answer
An NDIS provider business is normally priced as a multiple of maintainable earnings, meaning EBITDA after a market wage has been charged for whoever runs it. We could not find a reliable public source of settled sale prices for NDIS providers, and advertised asking prices are opening positions rather than evidence of what settled, so this article does not quote a multiple. The government sets maximum prices for supports funded through the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) or a plan manager, so earnings come from how efficiently a provider rosters, supervises and bills its workforce, not from what it charges. Participants choose their provider and cannot be moved automatically to a buyer, so there is no locked-in customer book. Registration is tied to a single ABN, so the entity and its compliance record are part of what changes hands. New rules from 1 July 2026 on selling a registered provider, and mandatory registration for supported independent living (SIL), put registration status at the centre of price. Two providers with the same revenue can sit far apart depending on their registration groups, their mix of SIL and core supports, and how much of the earnings rests on a few participants, a few houses or the owner.
What the buyer is really paying for: a delivery engine, not a participant list
A buyer pays for a trained and screened workforce, rosters that keep billable hours high, systems that produce claims a funder will pay, and a record that survives an audit. Participants are not the asset in the way a membership book is. They choose who supports them, and the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission's guidance says a change of ownership must not move them automatically. The NDIA's Annual Pricing Review for 2026-27 prices (June 2026) counts nearly 145,000 active providers of disability support worker supports in the six months to December 2025: 57 per cent supported a single participant, 89 per cent supported five or fewer, and sole traders were 78 per cent of active providers but claimed 15 per cent of payments. A sole trader's earnings are largely the owner's own labour, which a buyer cannot purchase. The money sits with a stable core: the 41 per cent of registered providers of these supports active in all six of the last half-years received 92 per cent of registered provider payments. A valuer's first test is whether the business works without the owner on the roster: remove the owner, charge a market wage for managing it, and see what earnings remain.
The price is set for you: what the price limits leave for earnings
Since the National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Act 2026, the Minister sets maximum prices by determination (section 45C of the NDIS Act 2013). The NDIS Pricing Schedule 2026-27, effective 24 September 2026, applies them to supports funded by the NDIA or a registered plan manager. A standard weekday daytime support worker hour is capped at $73.58, up 4.77 per cent from $70.23, and standard SIL on a weekday daytime has the same cap. The ceiling is effectively the price: the NDIA reports persistent claiming at the 60-minute maximum price, 69 per cent across all providers and 73 per cent for registered providers. The NDIA's cost model shows where margin sits. For a Level 1 worker it starts at an award rate of $38.50 an hour, adds leave, 12 per cent superannuation and allowances to reach $52.94, adds 21.65 per cent for operational overheads (supervision, workers compensation and unbillable paid hours) to reach $64.41, adds 12 per cent for corporate overheads to reach $72.13, then a 2 per cent margin on costs to reach $73.58. Earnings above that thin margin come from actual costs landing under the allowances, so a valuer tests utilisation, rostering and overheads rather than the reported margin. The NDIA says the model's overhead assumptions were last calibrated on 2020-21 benchmarking and may understate costs for registered organisations delivering complex supports, and it has scheduled a review for 2026-27. Wages are the other variable: the Fair Work Commission's 11 September 2026 decision on Schedule E of the SCHADS award takes effect on 1 December 2026, and the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing says the pricing schedule will be updated later in 2026 to reflect any required changes.
Registration is the asset that cannot move
The Commission's guidance says an NDIS registration is linked to a single ABN and cannot be transferred to a different one; a different ABN needs a new registration application. A buyer who wants the registration is pushed towards buying the entity that holds it, which means inheriting its compliance history and liabilities (a structuring question for your lawyer). For ownership changes from 1 July 2026, the Commission must be notified as soon as possible once it is known that a sale will happen, and a buyer of a provider delivering high-risk or complex supports faces an audit within three months if the sale significantly changes the organisation or its governance. SIL registration became mandatory on the same date: new providers need registration before delivering SIL, and unregistered providers already delivering it had to apply by 1 October 2026 or stop. That raises the cost of building a SIL business, though it is not evidence that prices have risen. Registration also decides who a provider can serve, because supports for participants whose plans are managed by the NDIA must come from registered providers. The evidence a buyer or valuer asks for:
- ·The certificate of registration, showing every registration group and condition
- ·Audit reports, corrective action requests, compliance notices and other Commission correspondence
- ·NDIS worker screening clearances for every risk-assessed and key personnel role
- ·A signed service agreement for every participant, matched to claims (a SIL support cannot be claimed without one)
- ·Claims and remittances reconciled to the bank, including rejected, reversed and unpaid claims
- ·Revenue by registration group, support type and funding management type (agency-managed, plan-managed or self-managed), with the largest participants' share
- ·Roster data showing billable and paid hours, overtime and the casual share of the workforce
SIL, core supports, SDA and coordination are priced differently
SIL is the scheme's largest support category: the NDIA's review shows $5.8 billion of payments across about 39,400 participants and 8,500 active providers in the six months to December 2025. Registered providers were 47 per cent of SIL providers but received 96 per cent of SIL payments. The sub-types rest on different evidence:
- ·Supported independent living: funding for a support worker to help or supervise participants around the clock, usually in a shared home. The NDIA notes participants have limited practical ability to switch providers without changing residence, so SIL is stickier than community access. The offsetting risks are vacancies and rostering in each house, and a government consultation on commissioning home and living supports for participants who need 24/7 support, which it links to provider viability.
- ·Specialist disability accommodation (SDA) and property: SDA is housing for people with extreme functional impairment or very high support needs, priced under its own schedule; the provider needs the SDA registration group and each dwelling must be enrolled. SIL funding does not cover rent, board or utilities, so where a business owns or leases the houses, value the property and the support business separately.
- ·Core supports and community access: mostly standard supports that registered and unregistered providers both deliver, so participants generally have many alternatives. Budgets for social, civic and community participation and capacity-building daily activities will be adjusted progressively from 1 October 2026. The Annual Pricing Review recommended a 10 per cent price cut for unregistered providers of social, community and civic participation supports from 1 January 2027, with registered providers' prices maintained, and the government is consulting on wider differentiated pricing. If adopted, registration status affects value directly.
- ·Plan management and support coordination: both are being redesigned, with a new plan management approach from 1 October 2027 and a newly commissioned support coordination function from 1 July 2028. Price should reflect how long each revenue stream can reasonably be expected to run.
The standing deductions and risks
Four items are standing adjustments in an NDIS provider valuation:
- ·Workforce: the NDIA's model loads the base award rate by 37.51 per cent for leave, superannuation and allowances before any overhead. Where participants attach to a particular coordinator or house supervisor, that is personal goodwill and leaves with them unless retention terms are in place.
- ·Concentration: test the share of revenue from the five largest participants and, in SIL, from each house, because one departure from a shared home leaves the provider carrying the vacancy. Participants begin moving to new framework planning, with a new needs assessment and budget method, from 1 April 2027, so today's plan budgets are not a guaranteed base.
- ·Claims integrity: the 2026 Act created offences for providing false information, for destroying records to defraud the NDIS and for providers offering kickbacks or inducements, and a new payment system will require providers to enrol with the NDIA before being paid. Claims that cannot be supported by service agreements and records are a liability, not revenue.
- ·Regulatory record and horizon: the Commission recorded 225 revocations of registration and 396 compliance notices against registered providers in the April to June 2026 quarter. Mandatory registration is funded to expand to all high-risk supports from 1 July 2027, with the government saying the reform will see 90 per cent of NDIS payments go to registered providers, so unregistered earnings need valuing with that in view.
A worked example: normalising a SIL and core supports provider
Consider a hypothetical registered provider with about $4.0 million of annual NDIS revenue: roughly $2.8 million from SIL in three shared homes and $1.2 million from community and core supports. Reported EBITDA is $500,000, but the owner works full time as general manager on wages of $70,000, and a market cost for a manager including superannuation is $160,000, so $90,000 comes off. A one-off legal and recruitment cost of $25,000 is added back. Annual leave and long service leave have been under-accrued by $35,000 a year, which comes off. Finally, $30,000 of SIL revenue was claimed for supports where no service agreement can be produced, so a buyer excludes it from maintainable earnings. Normalised EBITDA is $500,000 less $90,000, plus $25,000, less $35,000, less $30,000, which is $370,000. At an assumed multiple of 3.0 times, for illustration and not a benchmark, that supports about $1,110,000 before debt and working capital, and each half a turn of multiple moves the figure by $185,000. The buyer then deducts $60,000 for the change-of-ownership audit ($18,000) and replacing the rostering system ($42,000), leaving about $1,050,000 before debt and working capital adjustments. Every figure is illustrative. Each adjustment is evidenced, and the multiple is argued last.
What a defensible NDIS provider valuation file contains
Because the government fixes the price and no settled-price benchmark is available, the supportable position is won or lost in the evidence. The conclusion is a supportable range with the most supportable position concluded within it, and the file usually contains:
- ·Financial statements for all available years plus year-to-date trading, reconciled to the bank
- ·A normalisation schedule with evidence for every adjustment, starting with the market wage for whoever runs the business and the leave liability
- ·Revenue by registration group, support type, funding management type and participant, with house-by-house occupancy and vacancy history for SIL
- ·Service agreements and claim records sampled against payments
- ·Leases, head leases and any SDA or property arrangements, valued separately from the support business
- ·A reform sensitivity showing earnings under the current pricing schedule, then each pending change separately: the wage change, the 1 January 2027 pricing recommendation and the 2027 registration expansion
When the number has consequences
A formal valuation is worth commissioning once someone else will test the number: a sale, where buyer diligence and the Commission's ownership-change requirements examine the same records; a partner exit; a family law settlement; or a CGT event, including small business CGT concession claims under Division 152 of the ITAA 1997, where eligibility can turn on documented market values and the $6 million maximum net asset value test. Market value is what a willing but not anxious buyer and seller would agree (Spencer v Commonwealth (1907); the ATO's 'Market valuation for tax purposes' guidance). Oliver Group prepares independent valuations only, is not a tax agent and does not give tax, legal or financial advice; your accountant and lawyer apply the valuation in their own fields. Reports follow the guidelines of APES 225 Valuation Services. Oliver Group's fees are set by the annual turnover of the business: a Small Business Valuation is $1,495 + GST for turnover under $2 million, a Medium Business Valuation is $2,495 + GST for turnover between $2 million and $10 million, and a Large Business / Start-Up Valuation is $3,495 + GST for turnover over $10 million or for a start-up. A small-business draft is delivered in 2 business days and a medium-business draft in 3 business days; the delivery date for a Large Business / Start-Up Valuation is agreed before commencement. Delivery time starts once payment and all required information have been received. The fee is fixed in writing before work begins and never depends on the concluded value.